Bitcoin (BTC) Targets $53K; Market Indicators Suggest Otherwise: Weekly Forecast

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  • BTC price displays an ascending triangle setup, suggesting a potential breakout towards $53,629.
  • Transaction data supports this move, but indicators aren’t in line.
  • A daily candle close below the support floor at $34,752 will cancel the bullish narrative.

Bitcoin price extends consolidation as the world’s leading crypto prints a bullish formation. Overcoming this pattern might be vital in catalyzing a bullish run. However, things aren’t as straightforward as they seem. Market indicators and on-chain metrics show that the bullish theory might have more than what meets the eye.

Bitcoin and Its Price Dilemma

Bitcoin had its price unveiling four higher lows and three equal highs since 22 January. These swing points reveal an ascending triangle for the bellwether crypto. Meanwhile, this technical setup predicts a 21% upside move, determined by adding swing low-swing high distance to the $4,418 breakout point.

A decisive close beyond the horizontal resistance around $44,418 will mean breaching the mentioned setup and catalyze a 21% upside move towards $53,629. Surprisingly, a 24hr candle close beyond $52K will print a high higher, welcoming a bullish rally.

Such a development might see Bitcoin forming a higher low before climbing towards the psychological region at $60K and possibly exploring the ATHs of $69K amid sustained bullish pressure.

IntoTheBlock’s GIOM model supports this higher move. The index suggests that the nearest resistance region, between $41.6K and $43,750 is weak. That way, BTC can sail to $47,642 without hurdles. Here, about 6.03 million addresses that bought roughly 3.2 million Bitcoins stay out of money. Therefore actions to these regions might encounter selling momentum from individuals attempting to break even. Unlike technicals, transactions data support a potential bullish case but not past $50K.

The bullish outlook seems neat and possible. Nevertheless, Open Interest (OI) chart doesn’t imitate the optimistic narrative. The OI hovered in the 12.5 billion – 9.6 billion since 12 January. Recently, the figure plunged to 11 billion and maintained downtrends since 8 November 2021, showing whales’ absence. It would have been a bullish stance if the price remained calm while OI hiked. Nevertheless, the vice-versa shows BTC upside remained in turmoil.

With suppositions from market indicators and on-chain metrics, Bitcoin might endure a bearish move that violated the ascending triangle hypotenuse, translating to downswings towards weekly support at $34,752.

Buyers can attempt a run-up here. However, a 24hr candle close under this support will form a lower low, canceling the bullish narrative. That might see BTC dropping to $30,000 or under $29.1K to gather sell-side liquidity beneath the zone.


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