One of the most astonishing aspects of bitcoin is the rapid growth in price that it has seen throughout the course of its existence. This is one of the primary reasons why bitcoin has attracted such a huge number of investors worldwide.
Nevertheless, regardless of how long they have been in the business or how much experience they have, all investors have a single concern and are always seeking a response to that concern. Will bitcoins continue to follow their historical tendency and continue to climb, or will their expansion ultimately slow down and potentially even come to a complete halt?
As an attempt to answer this question, a model called stock-to-flow was formulated by PlanB, as per which there is a possibility that one can precisely predict the future valuation of BTC.
According to Plan B’s model, bitcoin’s value will proceed in a constant and spectacular way and will climb in years to come, with roughly 10-fold yields every four years. This prediction is based on the assumption that BTC will maintain to be used as an alternative currency and will continue being the mainstream in the market. The S2F concept has garnered significant interest, and PlanB has gained an amazing number of subscribers as a result of its highly sophisticated yet, useful model.
The framework has recently been the target of a significant amount of criticism as well. This is probably at least partially due to the attractiveness of the design, or maybe because some people, including myself, consider it to be too optimistic about being true.
Even though I have spent a significant amount of time working and researching the topic, as well as attempting to integrate difficult mathematical equations and formulas in order to demonstrate why I believe it to be too good to be true, after several days of continuous investigation, I have come to the realization that not all of the objections against it are legitimate.
It is true that some criticisms are very much on point, but the model is not brought to its knees by these arguments either, as a lot of people do consider it to be legit and even rely on it when it pertains to their future BTC investments.
Having stated that, the purpose of this essay is to provide you with a comprehensive look at the S2F model by discussing not just its accuracy and dependability but also some of the known critiques that have been levelled against it. Nevertheless, it is absolutely true that the majority of individuals may be placed in one of the two major categories: those who are “for” S2F and those that are “anti” S2F.
How do we place ourselves in this competition? Where do you think you’d belong to? This guide would help you reach an answer to it, for sure. Just keep reading!
What is Bitcoin Halving?
Before we learn about the S2F model, lets learn about a very essential concept behind bitcoin, which is referred to as bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin is the first digital currency that can’t be reproduced, replicated, stolen, or falsified in any way. This makes it extremely unique in the online realm as there’s no way one would be able to make a bitcoin their own or amend it as per their liking.
These are some of the major characteristics that contribute to its one-of-a-kind worth, and that makes sense in all honesty. Indeed, bitcoin is the inaugural item that humanity knows about that is electronically rare, and inside its functioning is a numerical technique which should cause Bitcoin’s value to continue increasing as time goes on. Mined bitcoins are organized into groups referred to as “blocks.” A block is a chunk of data that is 1 megabyte in size and contains a description of all of the transactions that occurred during a particular timeframe. Approximately every ten minutes, a new node or a new block will be produced.
Since the very beginning, the Bitcoin community has, without fail, been producing new blocks at regular intervals. On the third of January 2009, the genesis block or the first-ever bitcoin block was officially released to the public and the prize for successfully mining it was fifty bitcoins. Mining is a complex operation, and miners are compensated with bitcoins as a result of their tedious work in order to solve the complex algorithms which underpin a bitcoin.
However, what should be noted is that after every 210,000 created blocks, an important event known as “halving” occurs where the payout amount delivered to miners reduces by half from that point on. In those other terms, the incentive miners get paid will be cut in half, from 100 BTC to 50 BTC, after 210,000 blocks have been successfully mined. When the block count reaches 420,000, the amount will be further reduced from 50BTC to 25BTC and so on. Because new blocks are created every 10 minutes, “halving occurrences” happen following every 35,000 hours, which is nearly every four years.
It is expected that halving occurrences will take place until the payout for miners approaches zero Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin’s currency expression includes eight decimal points, the reward’s worth will be exactly 0 BTC upon the 33rd halving, which would happen in 2140, exactly 132 years later.
This implies that 2140 would be the last year where bitcoins would be mined, and after that, no more bitcoins would be made. Since new coins cannot be “printed”, “minted”, or “produced” from that point onwards, the number of bitcoins will continue to be deflated by the “lost-keys” ratio, causing Bitcoin to become truly “deflationary.”
What is the Stock-to-Flow Model for Bitcoin?
The ‘Stock-to-flow’ ratio is a figure that indicates the number of decades that will pass at the present pace of development in order to reach the entire stock level. When the number becomes greater, the cost also arsis.
It may be challenging to make financial commitments towards bitcoins due to the famously unstable nature of these digital assets, making it tough for inexperienced traders to make well-informed investments choices. In light of these challenges, one could consider it advantageous to make another more organized choice by using the “stock-to-flow” or S2F paradigm.
Conventional share prices, including investments made in Cryptocurrency, depend on investors making educated guesses about the direction in which the valuation of different asset classes will move. One concept that may aid in this endeavour is the stock-to-flow proportion, and it is one of these types of models which are widely used by traders in order to have a reliable idea regarding future price movements of BTC.
The SF ratio seems to have an established track record of correlating with the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which has contributed to its widespread adoption as a strategy for predicting the future BTC pricing information. Bitcoin was the first and is still the most well-known of the globe’s rare virtual commodities, although many cryptocurrencies have come into being following the inception of BTC.
However, it should be noted that in the same way that silver and gold resources are scarce and they would run out one day, their availability is as well scarce and meant to end; there will never be more than 21 million coins on the market. The stock-to-flow idea makes use of the notion that the scarcity of Bitcoin contributes to the currency’s higher revenue.
In spite of the fact that the stock-to-flow model may be quite well matched to past Bitcoin values, investors should not anticipate it to function as a sole indication for prospective trading profits. The framework does, nevertheless, give a standardized measure of exclusivity that can be applied to Bitcoin as well as other rare commodities in order to make comparisons between them. In conjunction to this, the model emphasizes the remarkable consistency of Bitcoin’s financial regulation.
Why Do We Predict Changes in Bitcoin’s Price Using the Stock-to-Flow Model?
For Bitcoin, we employ the S2F methodology since we have more solid data on its available inventory and movement than we did for other products, such as minerals and other rare metals. The stock and flow of these additional products might be impacted by an excessive number of unanticipated factors, which prevents the indicator from being very helpful for prediction purposes.
Within a matter of days, factors like as economic downturns, war, or catastrophic events, for example, have the potential to drastically change the yearly gold production (or other valuable metals and so, S2F can’t really be applied to gold, silver or any other precious mineral resource the Earth holds.
Although if we took all of these factors into account, we nevertheless wouldn’t be able to determine the exact supply or movement of gold since our tracking methods aren’t sophisticated enough. The challenge of monitoring its stock or flow is made more difficult because it routinely transforms people into circuit boards for heavy hardware and ornaments with which people happily adorn themselves.
Because of this, determining gold’s (or any other precious metal’s) precise S2F ratio needs a significant amount of educated guessing; consequently, commodity traders don’t make extensive utilization of S2F formulas.
On the contrary, the digital currency known as Bitcoin is unaffected by any one of the events mentioned above. Nor would an earthquake affect the rate through which it is mined; neither would a volcano. It is indeed impossible to stop or redirect its flow, and its entire quantity always seems to be completely transparent in the blockchain.
In addition, Bitcoin cannot be removed from the market in order to be used in the production of tradable commodities, such as hardware or jewellery or for any tangible purposes, for example. Because of this, the S2F proportion for Bitcoin is very close to being completely correct, and as a result, we rely on it to estimate the price movements of Bitcoin in the future.
Is the Stock-to-Flow Model of Bitcoin Reliable for Predicting Bitcoin’s Price?
When it concerns to anticipating the future worth variations of virtual currencies, the Btc stock-to-flow relation has considerable limits, despite the fact that it has demonstrated some valuable findings concerning BTC pricing to date.
For instance, the modelling takes into account just Bitcoin’s production and pays no attention to the desire for the virtual currency. Demand and availability are the two elements that have the most impact on the final price of an item. Even if Bitcoin’s supply-to-fee proportion will grow every four years through occurrences known as “halving,” the Cryptocurrency’s price would plummet considerably if demand approaches zero.
You see, if any asset has a lot of stock available itself but no demand for it in the market, there is absolutely no use for the asset’s stock. The same case lies with bitcoin too. Supply is significant, yet, so is the demand. When there’s no demand, the supply renders completely useless.
In addition, the Bitcoins stock-to-flow approach does not take into account some other elements that have the potential to influence the valuation of the asset too. Foremost, let us talk about bitcoin volatility.
Even though Bitcoin’s uncertainty has significantly decreased over the course of the years, the Bitcoin value continues to remain susceptible to significant fluctuations as there are so many factors that determine it. When the times get really unstable, investors start sharing their shares in a frenzy which leads to significant liquidation of bitcoin stock holdings, which obviously results in a huge drop in the price of bitcoin.
Let’s talk about black swan incidents now, which are unexpected happenings that have major effects, notably on the valuation of an asset. A big governmental crackdown that essentially forbids anybody from purchasing and exchanging cryptocurrencies would be an example of a “black swan” occurrence for Bitcoin because of its potential impact.
As a consequence of such a fictional scenario, the market of BTC may see a precipitous drop. There are many other things which could possibly go wrong, yet, S2F model takes into account none of these critical incidents.
Additionally, the S2F model presupposes that the consumption of Bitcoin would either increase from its present levels or at the very least, maintain its current level. Nevertheless, what more do you imagine would transpire if authorities in the European Union unexpectedly forbade trading in Cryptocurrency? The S2F model somehow doesn’t take into consideration the fact that consumers would plummet, which could result in a precipitous drop in Bitcoin’s valuation.
A ew people claim that the model places too much weight on the circulation of Cryptocurrency, which, as time has gone on, will have less of an impact on the Bitcoin value since demands is constantly satisfied by those who are prepared to sell their Cryptocurrency.
In other terms, flowing does have an effect on Bitcoin’s pricing, but it is simply a contributing component. Over a period, flow’s importance as even a contributing element would be reduced, which also will lead the S2F algorithm to anticipate less correctly.
We might picture a scenario where we have extracted all of the gold on the planet before the end of each day. The valuation of each gold nugget would almost likely rise, although not in an exponential fashion and not indefinitely, since we’d still have a significant amount of gold accessible for us to purchase and trade.
In comparison, if 90 percent of the world’s gold disappeared completely into pure nothingness, the value of the metal would rise; however, this would be due to a decrease in the overall reserves of gold rather than an increase in the outflow of gold.
Lastly, we have to take into consideration the reality that BTC is not the only cryptocurrency that is now in use. Therefore, although it is certain that it will continue to hold the number one slot for at least the next few years, its supremacy is expected to decrease as increasing numbers of virtual currencies come into being and compete for mainstream desire, popularity and attention.
An example of such is an altcoin which is a way more stable crypto than bitcoins. Though it doesn’t generate a lot of revenue, the risk associated with it is considerably lesser compared to BTC. This is why a lot of new investors are propelled towards it as they look for stability rather than quick return when it retains to virtual trading. Because of such altcoins and the birth of multitudes of other cryptocurrencies, the cost of bitcoin may fluctuate in a direction that is incompatible with the predictions made by the S2F models.
Conclusion
It may be advantageous to grasp how to utilize the stock-to-flow approach while engaging in cryptocurrency trading despite the criticisms thrown at it. In accordance with the model’s previous applications, there is a correlation between an increase in the stock-to-flow proportion of a virtual currency and an increase in its value.
This connection may assist one in making judgments about financial investments, and one should definitely use it as an investment-making tool. However, total reliance on S2F isn’t really recommended, and it’s always better to take into consideration different models and tools before making a final choice.